Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest event of the period was a C2 x-ray event observed at
25/1149Z from Region 1904 (N12W95). With the departure of Region 1904
there are now 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Nov) and expected to
be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days two and three (27
Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
24/2128Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Nov, 27 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M 20/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 119
Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 25 Nov 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 007/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/10