Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0232Z from Region 1904 (N12W67). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one and two (24 Nov, 25 Nov) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(26 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
393 km/s at 23/1403Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/1344Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/0723Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M 25/25/10
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 136
Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 140/135/130
90 Day Mean 23 Nov 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 006/005-007/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/25