Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z100 to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/1111Z from Region 1893 (S13, L=100). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at
20/2103Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24
Nov).

III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 141
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10