Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/0510Z from Region 1900 (S19W55). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (18 Nov,
19 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (20 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
556 km/s at 17/0001Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/2356Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0123Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 60/60/30
Class X 15/15/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 177
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 175/170/170
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10