Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0749Z from Region 1900 (S19W42). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
579 km/s at 16/1307Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 16/0559Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 16/0629Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Nov, 18 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 175
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 175/175/170
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 009/012-008/010-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/10