Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
14/0800Z from Region 1897 (S21E26). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (15 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 405 km/s at
14/1512Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 475 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (16 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Nov).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (15 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 50/40/40
Class X 15/05/05
Proton 20/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 176
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 175/175/175
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 005/005-007/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/35
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/45