Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0638Z from Region 1890 (S11W15). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
662 km/s at 09/2037Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 09/0520Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 09/0520Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (12 Nov).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 148
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 150/155/150
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 011/012-008/008-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/10