Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at
05/2212Z from Region 1890 (S11E36). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 378 km/s at
06/1649Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1428Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/1805Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 571 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 154
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10