Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0818Z from Region 1890 (S09E35). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 411 km/s at
04/2109Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2324Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/2258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 234 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 149
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/10