Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
04/0544Z from Region 1884 (S12W39). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at
04/1326Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2101Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1554Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 124 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 147
Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 145/140/135
90 Day Mean 04 Nov 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/15/20