Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
03/0522Z from Region 1884 (S12W27). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
413 km/s at 03/2050Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/0642Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/0425Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
02/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 135 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Nov, 05 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (06 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 144
Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 145/140/135
90 Day Mean 03 Nov 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/15