Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
29/1831Z from Region 1875 (N06W92). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31
Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
367 km/s at 29/0940Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 29/1225Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/1012Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
29/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 732 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Oct, 01
Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (31 Oct). Protons
have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Oct,
31 Oct, 01 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 153
Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 29 Oct 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 011/012-017/024-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/45/20
Minor Storm 05/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/35/25