Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
28/0203Z from Region 1875 (N07W79). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30
Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 364 km/s at
28/0540Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/0143Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0355Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 28/2020Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 418 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (30 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (31 Oct).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 160
Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 28 Oct 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 007/008-005/012-017/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/45
Minor Storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/05/35