Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
24/0030Z from Region 1877 (S12W03). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 367 km/s at
24/0700Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0910Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/1816Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 767 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Oct), have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day two (26 Oct) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (27 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/15/20
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 161
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 165/165/165
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 014/016-009/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/25
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/25