Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/2336Z from Region 1865 (S21W21). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct,
19 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
575 km/s at 15/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 922 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Oct, 18 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 128
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 013/015-007/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/05