Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0725Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 460 km/s at
11/0313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 505 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Oct, 13 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (14 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 129
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/15