Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
09/0148Z from Region 1865 (S21E58). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct,
12 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 683 km/s at 09/0311Z. Total IMF reached 36 nT at 08/2112Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 08/2305Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 113
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 012/012-008/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/20
Major-severe storm 40/05/10