Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
07/0414Z from Region 1856 (N07E02). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Oct,
09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
341 km/s at 07/0055Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/0517Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0319Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 669 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (09 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 112
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 006/005-007/008-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/30/40