Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1424Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Oct,
08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 339 km/s at
05/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 795 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09
Oct).

III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 107
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10