Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (06 Oct) and likely to be
low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (07
Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at
04/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 673 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 106
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 30/30/10