Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
04/0332Z from Region 1856 (N08E43). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Oct,
06 Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 467 km/s at
03/2223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2139Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached 1 nT at 04/1514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 523 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 109
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 110/105/100
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/30/30