Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 02 October 2013
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 664 km/s at 02/0241Z. Total IMF reached 32 nT at 02/0424Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -29 nT at 02/0425Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 85 pfu at 01/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 362 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (05 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (03 Oct). III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 20/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Oct 108 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 111 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 024/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 016/020-008/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/10/05 Minor Storm 15/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/10 Major-severe storm 50/20/05
