Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 01 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at
01/1929Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/0803Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/1321Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu at 30/2115Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 659 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Oct), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (03 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (04 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(02 Oct), are expected to cross threshold on day two (03 Oct) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (04 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     99/75/40
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 107
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  014/020-030/040-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/35/15
Minor Storm           25/30/05
Major-severe storm    05/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    65/65/25