Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
399 km/s at 10/2050Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/1858Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/1858Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1228 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Sep), unsettled to active
levels on day two (12 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(13 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 095
Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 10 Sep 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 008/010-014/018-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/15
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/50/20