Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
14/0031Z from Region 1809 (now around the west limb). There are
currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug,
17 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
514 km/s at 14/1617Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/1353Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/2210Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 125
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 125/125/130
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 012/015-008/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/20