Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug,
12 Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 515 km/s at
09/2242Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/1224Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1078 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (11 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (12 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (13
Aug).

III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 103
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 011/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 016/025-011/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/05
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 60/25/10