Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Aug,
08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
567 km/s at 05/2249Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2110Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/2249Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5207 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Aug,
08 Aug, 09 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 104
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/010-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 35/40/25