Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Aug,
07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 607 km/s at 05/0908Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 04/2102Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 04/2102Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2770
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 104
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 011/012-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/35/25