Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Aug,
06 Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 551 km/s at 04/1834Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 04/1635Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 04/2025Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 433
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (06 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (07 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 105
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 012/017-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/25/10