Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Aug,
04 Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
02/0100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 791 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (05 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 113
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 009/010-008/008-007/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/25