Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
08/2219Z from Region 1785 (S09W16). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
424 km/s at 09/2031Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 09/1959Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1320Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 308 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Jul, 11 Jul) and
quiet levels on day three (12 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 120
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 012/015-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/10