Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
08/0122Z from Region 1785 (S09W16). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 343 km/s at
08/0945Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0735Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/1406Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 231 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 119
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 005/005-012/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/20
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/35/25