Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/1609Z from Region 1781 (N22W17). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a peak of 492 km/s
at 29/1735Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 29/1122Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -12 nT at 28/2143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak flux of 695 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (01 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (02
Jul).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 100
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 105/110/105
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 020/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 032/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 020/025-011/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/05
Minor Storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 40/40/05