Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
28/0337Z from Region 1778 (S17W01). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
444 km/s at 27/2200Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 28/1617Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 28/1906Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1393 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30
Jun, 01 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 101
Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 28 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 011/019-007/009-008/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/15/20