Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/2217Z from Region 1772 (S22W38). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun,
25 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
710 km/s at 22/0358Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/0705Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/2234Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at
22/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 803 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jun), unsettled to active
levels on day two (24 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(25 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (23 Jun, 24 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 10/10/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 130
Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 22 Jun 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 009/012-015/018-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/20
Minor Storm 05/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/50/25