Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
18/0207Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun,
21 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 344 km/s at
18/0841Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/2106Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 427 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Jun, 20 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (21 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 125
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 005/005-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/25