Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Jun,
15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at
13/0331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 786 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16
Jun).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 099
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15