Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun,
14 Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 477 km/s at
12/0430Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2110Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 554 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15
Jun).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 093
Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 095/100/105
90 Day Mean 12 Jun 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15