Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
03/0725Z from Region 1762 (S29W35). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun,
05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
779 km/s at 03/0647Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0227Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/2011Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8298 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Jun, 05 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (06 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 112
Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 03 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 007/008-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/15/25