Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2032Z from a region around the east limb. There are currently 10
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May,
15 May).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at
11/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 456 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 May), quiet levels on
day two (14 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 May).


III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 147
Predicted   13 May-15 May 150/150/150
90 Day Mean        12 May 118


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  007/008-003/008-010/005


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/25
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/30
Major-severe storm    25/10/30