Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/0823Z from Region 1734 (S18W37). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May,
10 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
599 km/s at 07/1348Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/0043Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0000Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 395 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 May, 10 May).

III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 129
Predicted 08 May-10 May 130/135/135
90 Day Mean 07 May 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 007/008-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10