Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
06/0205Z from Region 1739 (N12E30). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May,
09 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
595 km/s at 06/0918Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 06/0816Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 06/0742Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 369 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).

III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 131
Predicted 07 May-09 May 130/130/135
90 Day Mean 06 May 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 008/008-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10