Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 April 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/2032Z from Region 1730 (S18W20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May,
02 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at
28/2332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1591 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Apr, 02
May) and quiet levels on day two (01 May).

III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 142
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/008-004/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/10/20