Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 April 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (15 Apr) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (16 Apr) and
expected to be low on day three (17 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
558 km/s at 14/0443Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 14/0857Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/0524Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
13/2255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 207 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Apr, 16 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 30/15/05
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 117
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 115/110/105
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/05