Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 April 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
03/0943Z from Region 1708 (N10W11). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 – 06
Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 371 km/s at
03/0122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3798 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (06 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 127
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 006/005-006/005-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/15