Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 Nov 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M3 event at 21/1530Z
from Region 1618 (N09E01) associated with Type IV and II radio sweeps
(estimated velocity of 1918 km/s), a 200 sfu Tenflare, and a CME. More
imagery is needed to determine the trajectory, however, it is expected
to be Earth-directed due to the location of the region. Region 1618 also
produced an M1/1n flare at 21/0656Z associated with Type IV and II radio
sweeps (estimated velocity of 720 km/s) and a CME. This CME appears to
have a slight Earthward component but the majority of ejecta is directed
Eastward as visible on imagery. Region 1618 developed into a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. A filament eruption occurred
between 20/2305Z to 21/0200Z at around N27E17 with a 14 degree
heliographic extent. This filament eruption does not appear to have a
CME associated with it. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions
on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate with a chance for high levels on days one, two, and three (22
Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov). Region 1618 is expected to produce M-class flares.
A chance for an isolated X-class flare exists for this region.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
488 km/s at 21/0307Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2228Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6.4 nT at 20/2350Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 857 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Nov). On day two (23
Nov) conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm
levels with a chance for major storm levels due to the arrival of 21 and
22 Nov CMEs. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active
with a chance for minor storm levels on day three (24 Nov) with CME
effects combined with a favorably positioned coronal hole. A chance for
a proton event exists on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24
Nov) due to a chance of high solar flare activity and a favorable
position of Region 1618.

III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 140
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 140/135/135
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 010/012-023/030-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/40
Minor Storm 05/30/20
Major-severe storm 01/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 30/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/65/60