Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 Nov 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0233Z from newly numbered Region 1614(N15E72). There were two other
newly numbered regions on the disk as well: 1613 (S21E57) and 1615
(N09E61). A non-earth directed CME was observed off of the southwest
limb on LASCO C2 imagery at 10/2224Z and was associated with the
eruption of a large prominence. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
with a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (12 Nov,
13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 352 km/s at
11/2010Z. Total IMF reached 5.4 nT at 11/1104Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.2 nT at 11/1150Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be initially quiet but is expected to become mostly active with a
chance for minor storm levels beginning about mid-day on day 1 (12 Nov)
and partway into day 2 (13 Nov) due to the arrival of the CMEs from
09/1524Z and 10/0539Z. Activity is expected to decrease to generally
unsettled levels on day 3 (14 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 133
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 135/140/145
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 017/030-013/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/05
Minor Storm 20/25/01
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/30/15
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 55/05/05