Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 November 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted
of a few, low-level B-class flares. All the regions on the disk were
quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days with just a chance for an isolated
C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) steadily weakened throughout the
period from initial values around 10 nT to day-end values around 3
nT. The z-component of the IMF (Bz) turned northwards at about 0300Z
and solar wind velocity was at nominal values between 300 to 320
km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (03-05
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 097
Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 02 Nov 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 017/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 007/007-006/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/10