Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the
period, a C4 at 14/0230Z, occurred from a region just beyond the
northeast limb. New flux emergence was observed in the northeast
quadrant and was numbered Region 1592 (N23E20). An asymmetric halo
CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14/0048Z.
Correlation with STEREO B EUVI and COR2 imagery determined it was a
backside event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare during the forecast
period (15-17 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. An
isolated minor storm period was observed during the 14/0000-0300Z
period. Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE spacecraft, declined
from approximately 590 km/s to 490 km/s while the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active periods on
day 1 (15 October) as effects from the coronal hole high speed
stream wane. On days 2-3 (16-17 October), quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 132
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 028/052
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 011/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/15/15