Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. At 07/2046Z, a C1
x-ray event was observed from an area of enhanced emission beyond
the NE limb. A few B-class flares were observed during the past 24
hours from Region 1585 (S21W01). New Region 1586 (S12E66) rotated
onto the disk as an H-type spot group. A 30 degree long filament,
centered near S65W15, erupted during the period. SDO imagery first
observed movement along the filament channel at approximately
06/2000Z with ejecta visible off the SW limb at about 07/0700Z.
LASCO C2 imagery observed a partial-halo CME lifting off the SW limb
first visible at 07/0812Z. Subsequent WSA-Enlil model output
indicated a possible weak, Earth-directed component of this CME. No
other Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class activity all three days of
the forecast period (08 – 10 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite
measurements observed wind speeds varied between about 290 to 350
km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did
not vary much beyond +/- 6 nT. Low energy particles, measured at
ACE, indicated a steady rise through the period likely associated
with the approaching 05 October CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels through
most of day one (08 October). Late on 08 October, active levels
with a chance for minor storm periods are expected due to the
arrival of the Earth-directed CME observed on 05 October. On day
two (09 October), continued minor storm conditions are expected
early in the day, decreasing to mostly quiet to unsettled levels
with a chance for isolated active periods as effects from the CME
wane. Quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated
active periods are expected on day three (10 October) due to effects
from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream coupled with a
possible glancing blow from the 07 October CME.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 098
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 015/018-017/020-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/20
Minor storm 15/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/35/25